A recent article on USA Today’s website was touting the next generation of weather alert technology.  Using short texts, the federal government will soon be able to warn more people than ever before of impending weather emergencies, AMBER alerts, and presidential alerts.  While this news sounds wonderful, we need to be cautious as meteorologists in our enthusiasm for it.

Between the federal agencies and private industries, we are truly building an arsenal of weapons against mass meteorological ignorance, and I don’t mean this in a derogatory way.  Many in the general public, despite our best efforts, still seem quite unaware of how the weather works.  For example, there’s the adage that “If you don’t like the weather in _____, wait five minutes.  It will change.”  Every region thinks that is a local joke.  No, that’s the weather!  But I digress…

We can repeat ourselves over and over on television, radio, blogs, articles, etc., that the best way to avoid being the victim of a weather disaster is to be weather aware.  We are able to say several days in advance that there could be severe weather on a particular date and to keep an eye on the forecast.  We can explain how summertime thunderstorms actually need the nice, warm sunshine to initiate.  We can even put out a weather watch hours before convection starts, and yet, people will still be taken by surprise by a change in the weather.  It’s a source of frustration for many meteorologists, especially when the news media perpetuates the idea that storms “hit without warning” as we witnessed a few months ago on a national evening news show.

While we are able to tell people to pay attention to the local authorities, news media, NOAA weather radios, and – soon – text alerts, we need to remind those same people that no warning system is truly failsafe!  For example, when citizens start relying on text messages from the government to warn them of a tornado in their area, what happens when the cell tower closest to them is out of commission?  They won’t get the text.  They will claim, possibly with valid reason, that it hit without warning, assuming they survive the event.  Any technological system can fail, and it is our responsibility to remind people of that just as much as it is our responsibility to urge them to have a NOAA weather radio and to be weather aware.

As meteorologists, it is our duty to teach as many people as possible the signs to watch for when the weather turns threatening.  We don’t have to be the only ones who can look at the clouds and “magically” know if there’s potential for hail or a tornado.  In fact, we should be excited to arm everyone who wants to learn with that knowledge!  The ability to interpret a changing sky, at least to some degree, can make all the difference in the world for people who are outdoors on a slight risk day.  If nothing else, teaching them to turn on the weather radio, or even a local radio station when the clouds become ominous and the winds shift dramatically, can help save lives in the long run.

I have often written about getting involved in local organizations in order to network and to expand your horizons.  Networking helps in job hunting, and even if you’re not currently searching for a new position, you never know when you might be looking again.  Even better, you never know when you might be in a position to help someone else find a job.

A couple of weeks ago, I was installed as the new vice-president of the Central North Carolina Chapter of the American Meteorological Society.  While I’m excited about taking on this new role, I am somewhat concerned about how I came to have it.  I was not technically voted in by ballot after hard-fought campaigning.  I “won” by attrition.  No one ran against me.  No one else wanted to volunteer for the responsibility.  I honestly believe that’s too bad.  It’s not that I won’t be a good vice-president.  It’s not that I won’t work with the other officers to inject some new life into our organization.  It’s just that the lack of enthusiasm for people my age and younger for jumping into leadership roles in local professional organizations is disheartening.

I’ve said it in previous blog posts, there can be great value in belonging to an organization like the AMS and NWA, especially the local chapters.  I won’t rehash all of the reasons here.  I will, however, say that in a job market as tough as the one today’s recent college graduates are facing, which is the same one I faced as a new meteorology graduate just a few years ago, there is much truth in the old saying that it’s not what you know, but who you know.  So, to the new grads I’d like to say congratulations and good luck!  Now go out there, join at least one professional group, take on a leadership role, and network, network, network! You’ll improve your chances of finding work and improve your ability to help those around you at the same time.

A few weeks ago, we posted our video interview with Jessica Losego about her job acting as a liaison between meteorologists and emergency managers.  In it, she talks about what a typical day is like for her, what classes and activities a person interested in pursuing a career like hers should take, and what the future may hold for the field.  Since we realize that it is not convenient for everyone to watch the videos, here is the audio only version of that interview for your listening pleasure:

http://www.whatever-weather.com/podcasts/wywxj_jessica_losego_w_bumper.mp3

From the AMS Glossary of Meteorology:

cap—(Also called lid.) A region of negative buoyancy below an existing level of free convection (LFC) where energy must be supplied to the parcel to maintain its ascent.

This tends to inhibit the development of convection until some physical mechanism can lift a parcel to its LFC. The intensity of the cap is measured by its convective inhibition. The term capping inversion is sometimes used, but an inversion is not necessary for the conditions producing convective inhibition to exist.

Kind of like the baseball cap you wear on your head, the atmospheric term signifies a physical barrier.  In order for a parcel of air that is rising (remember that air warmer than its surroundings rises) to break through this barrier, energy must be added.  In most cases that energy is in the form of more heat.  During the spring and summer months, when talk of severe weather is at the forefront, you’ll often hear forecasters and storm chasers talk about how warm the temperature at the surface must get to “break the cap.”  Once the parcel can break the cap, it (and all of its little friends) can build clouds and create storms.

As I wrote about in my last blog post a few weeks ago, the traditional use of LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) in the Atmospheric Science community is to point it to the sky and work on studies about atmospheric air quality.

Figure 1: High Spectral Resolution LiDAR on right, multipulse LiDAR on left platform

From: http://blog.lidarnews.com/aerosol-lidar-in-action

There are many different groups who have LiDAR sensors pointed to the sky across the world.  Some of note based in the United States are ARM Climate Research Facility through the US Department of Energy (more ARM next time), MicroPulse LiDAR Network operated through NASA and part of the MicroPulse network is the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and their LiDAR sensors with their Smog Blog.

Across the board, LiDAR laser wavelengths are usually in the green or IR bands.  The LiDAR for Atmospheric air bands is in the green bands, around 523nm or 527nm.

The MPL network is worldwide.  Here is a graphic in all sites they have had from 2000-2012:

The LiDAR is looking upward and looking at the planetary boundary layer aerosol return.

Here is a recent dataset from a few days ago from the UMBC LiDAR station from their Smog Blog from March 15, 2012:

On their blog they interpreted haze up to 4km from fires across the southeast US.  It can clearly be seen on the time series plot.  This was determined by using other satellite and fire data from across the region to help interpret what the return is.

The UMBC also looks for low level jets with their LiDAR system.  This this example from September 28, 2008 you can see it around 0600Z – 1200Z.  They also show it in their nearby wind profiler.

These data with other sources of data from other sensors determine air quality levels on a daily basis.  I have posted links at the bottom of this post to sites I mentioned in this article.

I am going to adjust my previous schedule from my last blog post.  In my next blog post I am going to feature LiDAR with Climate Studies and then Snow Cover studies before moving onto building modeling with flooding and hurricane studies.

Sources:

MPL Instrument Discussion: http://mplnet.gsfc.nasa.gov/instruments.html

UMBC LiDAR Tutorial: http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/archives/Lidar_20091015.pdf

UMBC Smog Blog: http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/

UMBC Low Level Jet Examples: http://alg.umbc.edu/mdellj

(c) 2012 Charles Schoeneberger

Many of our whatever-weather.com readers know that I have two bachelor’s degrees.  My first degree is a B.A. in communication with a concentration in mass communication.  My second is a B.S. in meteorology.  I’ve combined those two passions to create this website.  As a communication professional, I have to stop every once in a while and point out follies that I see others making when using statistics to make a point in the media.   My goal is not to be critical of any person or group; my goal is to get people thinking about the information they’re fed every day and why you can’t just take it at face value.

Rule #1 of being media savvy: Statistics can be used to say whatever you want them to say, especially if you present the title as fact and the viewer/reader doesn’t stop to consider what might have gone into finding/creating those numbers.  As much as I like the facebook group Protect the National Weather Service and support its cause, they posted a graph last week that could be very misleading if their fans take it only at face value.  I am posting it here in order to illustrate my point:

When you look at this graph, it appears that the number of tornadoes that occur during the spring months of March through May have skyrocketed since 1950.  I mean holy smoke!  They’re multiplying and they’re out to get us!  The title of the chart and the accompanying explanation seem to say just that.  The insinuation is that if we let Congress cut funding to the NWS, the tornadoes will win!  Again, I am not taking issue with the obvious need to protect funding for the National Weather Service.  Its job is of the utmost importance.  I am taking issue with this use of statistics to create fear, which leads to action.

Taking Rule #1 into consideration, the next step is to look closer at the graph and consider how times have changed since the 1950’s.   First and foremost, advances in all sorts of technology has increased our ability to see, report, and verify tornado events.  Between 1980 and 2000, Doppler Radars were implemented across the United States and are now being replaced and/or supplemented by dual polarization radars.  Doppler technology allows users to see velocities within a storm including the “couplet” signature that shows rotation.  This advance in particular has helped lengthen warning lead time and save lives.

With the increased ability to warn on storms came the increased need for verifying that they in fact had tornadoes – ground truth.  Verifying that a storm that produced a tornado helps the NWS in several ways, most importantly, the service needs to know that they are not having false positives and warning on too many storms that are non-tornadic.  Improved hit rates lead to more confidence in the warnings by the public, which is important if warnings are to be heeded when they are sounded.  So, if a tornado occurred in a sparsely populated area of northern Minnesota before Doppler and no one was there to witness it, it was not reported.  That fact doesn’t mean that it didn’t happen.  It only means there was no record of it.  Now that verification is important, more non-reported tornadoes can be investigated where they were expected to have occurred even without witness.  The path will be there for officials to find later, and if found, the storm will be counted.

Another relatively recent change that could contribute to the increasing number of tornadoes is the popularity of storm chasing.  It has been done for decades by scientists trying to improve our understanding of tornadic storms.  In recent years, storm chasing has become popular with the general public and is now even a branch of the tourism industry.  Whether it be for better or worse, it’s a fact.  More chasers trying to get a view of a storm means more tornadoes being reported.  With the addition of cell phones and mobile internet, reports are easier to make.  Plus, more civilians are being trained as Skywarn spotters.  Again, that means more reports are coming in.

Hopefully, by now, you’ve caught on to where I’m going with this little exercise.  While the above graph may be useful, it can be extremely misleading.  If the writer had added just one word to the title and the explanation of it, I would not be using it as an example of why people need to be more savvy about how statistics can be used and manipulated by groups and the media in general.  What is that word?  “REPORTED.”   If the title said “U.S. Spring (March – May) Reported Tornadoes,” I would not be crying foul on a group that I fully support in its purpose.  Misleading titles and misuse of statistics should never be considered an appropriate means to an end, but those tactics are used all too often by both sides of many arguments.  It is up to us, the viewers/readers/users of the media, to think critically about the things we are presented for public consumption every day.  It is up to us to question where those numbers came from, how those things were counted, and what it really means.  It is our responsibility to be media savvy.

One of the reasons I left the Twin Cities and moved back home to Raleigh was to be closer to my family.  I’ll be honest, after two years away, I missed them terribly.  It’s not easy for someone from a very close-knit family to move half-way across the country and never have parents or a sibling visit… but that’s a topic for another blog.  The bottom line is I’m home and I can see my nephews and niece whenever I want.  I love that fact!  In return, my siblings have the benefit of being able to say “Ask Aunt Niki,” to any question about the weather, or any other scientific subject for that matter.  So, when my six year-old nephew asked his mom what clouds are, she told him to ask me that night at dinner.

I have talked in the past with other meteorologists who like to explain weather concepts to kids about using examples and simple experiments.  (Those ideas may eventually end up on this site as videos in the future.)  The first question that came to my mind when he asked was how to quickly explain the water cycle, especially clouds, to a first grader using what was nearby.  After dinner, I took him and my thirteen year-old nephew into the kitchen and put a small pot of water on the stove to boil.  I’d like to say that I while the water came to a boil, I waxed poetically to them about the importance of conserving water or clean water or anything of the sort.  In reality, they ran to the family room to play until I called them back because the water was ready.

I grabbed a roll of Saran Wrap and tore off a section that measured about a foot long and asked the older nephew to help me hold it about 8-10 inches above the pot, being careful not to let the steam burn us.  As the steam rose and hit the Saran Wrap, a film of condensation formed.  At that time, I took the opportunity to explain that the puffy clouds that we see are actually lots of water droplets like those on the cling wrap and when the water gets too heavy (keeping it in simple terms for a six year-old), it falls to the ground as rain.   I went on to explain the water cycle briefly, and then he nodding his head with excitement that he understood, went back to playing.

This was just an example of a simple experiment you can do at home to teach children about the weather when they show curiosity.  I’m wondering what others you can think of.  Please share them!

I received a lot of feedback after my last blog post about the reasons that meteorologists ought to go to their local chapter meetings.  The comments ranged from “well said” to “I don’t even know if there is a local chapter nearby,” and there were a few others that I won’t share here.  Suffice it to say there was some lively conversation in a LinkedIn group on the subject.  In response to that conversation and others, I’d like to look at the local chapters from a different perspective: what can local chapters do to attract new members and maintain the existing ones?

Honestly, this is a conversation I’ve taken part in many times in recent months.  As the “old timers” try to find “young blood” to hand the ball to, many are wondering where the young ones are.  Why aren’t they coming to the meetings?  What can we do to bring more members into the group and keep them active?  I’d like to make a few suggestions.  I can’t take credit for all of these ideas.  I am just merely passing them on to you.

First and foremost, a chapter would do itself good to have a website, but not a stagnant one.  If it can’t be updated regularly, it might as well not exist.  If the site still has information about the next meeting coming up in May, 2007, there is a red flag to potential members – a big red flag.  A stagnant page makes the group look inactive.  It’s a very poor first impression to say the least.  How can someone who is actively looking for a local chapter feel comfortable reaching out to a group who can’t update its page once per month?  Honestly, my own assumption would be that I had stumbled upon either a mistake, a page that should have been closed down years ago, or a chapter that didn’t care enough to make changes to its own information.

Websites are great first impressions when done correctly, but they aren’t enough.  People these days need to feel connected, and that’s where social media can come in handy.  Our chapter uses a yahoo group to distribute its monthly newsletter online and remind members about the meetings.  Just last month, we launched a facebook page.  It’s membership is building slowly, but the key is that it’s there now.  Twitter and Google + can be used, too.  Yes, it takes a bit of time to keep those pages up as well, but the more ways using modern technology you use to reach out, the more likely your message will be headed.  However, as with the website, if the page goes stagnant, there’s not much point in having it.

For those who aren’t comfortable on social networking sites, try an email newsletter.  Send it out in Word.doc or PDF formats once per month.  Ask the members to forward it to anyone they might think would be interested in joining.  You could go even lower tech and ask current active members to put flyers announcing the meetings in their break rooms at work, assuming they’re working with other weather enthusiasts.  Notice my choice of words.  Not every AMS member is a degreed meteorologist, and that’s okay.

Maybe the younger mets aren’t as interested in formal meetings, and would rather have more of a social gathering with a speaker.  I’ve suggested recently doing a meetup group.  Meetup.com is a popular website that allows groups to publicize gatherings, post calendars, and get member feedback in an open atmosphere.  Yes, you can be picky about who joins.  Yes, you can send out emails from the group to the members using their service.  Oh, and yes, it does cost some money to do.  It might not be for every group, but the suggestion is just one more example of using modern technology and social networking sites to reach out to the next generation of weather professionals.

Often, the local chapters get into a groove, or a rut depending on whom you ask, and have the meeting at the same place on the same day at the same time every month.  Why?  Meteorology is one of those 24-7-365 career fields that makes attending meetings like that nearly impossible for some people.  Those who work the second shift 30 miles away will rarely if ever make a Thursday night, 7pm meeting on the third week of every month.  How could they?  How could you expect them to?  So why should they join a group whose meetings they can’t attend?  A simple solution: have one or two (or more depending on your membership) meetings per year during the day at a more central location.  For example, we have the EPA right in our backyard at the Research Triangle Park and four television stations scattered across the Triangle region.  The prime time meteorologists can’t make our meetings.  The ones who work in the Park often live on the opposite side of it from Raleigh.  So next year, we will try to have a lunch meeting in RTP.  What is there to lose?  If no one shows, then we know that the excuses potential members use about the time of day or location were just convenient cop-outs.  At least we will have tried.

Another idea to bring in new blood is to have a just for fun type outing.   Local chapters have to have meetings, yes, but no one said that is all they have to do.  Get the gang together and go see a ball game.  Hit a museum.  Heck!  Do some charity work.  Do something fun!  Make the group more social by being more social!  That’s what the “kids” are looking for these days.

Last, but by no means least, you can reach out to potential members by offering them a personal invitation to a meeting.  It’s not a new idea at all, but I speak from experience when I say it works.  In the Twin Cities, a coworker or two told me about the meetings, forwarded the newsletter of the Twin Cities Chapter to me, and asked me to join them at the next one.  I went, and I made some lasting friendships.  After moving back to Raleigh, I met a member of our local chapter.  He told me I should come, but for several reasons, I didn’t make it that year.  Then over the summer, the chapter secretary sent me an email through our contact page to let me know about the chapter and ask me to attend.  He put the chapter back on my radar (pun intended), and I went to the first meeting of the year.  I’ve been hooked ever since.  Your members are the best advertising you have.  Encourage them to get out there, in person and online, and spread the word about how great your chapter is.  Go!  Reach out!

I have written in the past about how Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Meteorology relate to each other.  I want to extend that blog post to a form of remote sensing which overlaps with GIS.

LiDAR is Light Detection and Ranging, basically a repeating laser and receiver.  How you use it in meteorology does depend on which way you aim it.  Traditionally it is pointed up into the sky for air quality studies.  The laser reflects off particles in the atmosphere to measure the amount of light scatter and particulate mass in the atmosphere.

The other way is to point the laser towards the ground from an elevated platform like an airplane or helicopter or a ground tripod setup.  If you use it in this way you overlap Meteorology with civil engineering/survey applications and GIS/Remote Sensing applications.  When you combine disciplines in this way you get applications of the technology which lead to stronger products for public safety and commerce.

When you collect LiDAR data from any platform, you get a highly detailed height return off the surface.  If it is an aerial platform (plane or helicopter) you get returns from above looking down.  Depending on how you process the data, you can use it in many ways.  One way is to get a highly detailed Digital Elevation Model (DEM), which is highly useful for flooding applications and precision agriculture applications.  Some studies have also been able to obtain snow pack estimates by comparing flights in the winter to the summer model and compute height differences.

Another product from aerial LiDAR area is 3D building reconstruction.  There are two forms of 3D building reconstruction on the market.  One is the simple model where you have a building footprint model just extended in the vertical (Z) with a generic flat top based on a estimated or known building height (obtained via survey or some photogrammetry programs).  This form is good for numerical modeling of urban flooding and heat island effects, estimating urban population with energy demand, and large scale 3D visualization (Shan, Toth 2009).

There are also highly detailed 3D building models you can extract from LiDAR data.  These models are better than the simple models for hurricane wind damage models and detailed urban landscape modeling.  These models take longer to render and do not always work with many mainstream GIS software packages on the market.  The detailed models are still under software development while algorithms improve and work to overcome some limitations in obtaining data such as building shadowing from trees and building size with data resolution.

I am planning more detailed blog posts on each part of LiDAR I have mentioned.  The more cross-discipline knowledge and technology we share the safer we are from natural disasters and the more efficient commerce can be.

(c) 2012 Charles Schoeneberger

I have to admit that I am at a loss.  Local Chapters of the American Meteorological Society are reporting lower meeting attendance numbers across the country.  The membership lists are shrinking, and some chapters are folding.  It’s actually kind of a sad thing to me.  There’s a tradition here that seems to be fading away.  I am at a loss for an explanation.

In this age of “social networking,” we ought to be embracing a chance to meet individuals with similar interests, but social networking no longer seems to mean networking face-to-face.  Instead, we’re “meeting” people online, which is all well and good.  The internet gives you the chance to spread your wings a little further than you might have 40 years ago.  Facebook, Google+, twitter, etc., are great for getting quick snippets of new “friends” thoughts on different topics.  However, there’s nothing like standing or sitting next to someone sharing ideas and stories about a subject that excites both of you.  In person, you can get a much better idea about a someone’s personality, passions, and character.   Remember, in job hunting, lead finding, and other business ventures, it’s often not just what you know, but who you know.  Tell me, do you really know the person on the other end of that twitter feed?  Have you worked with him?  Joked with him?  Done any sort of business with him?  What do you know about his real life?  While many people are who they say they are online, it’s very hard to be sure who is being authentic and who is just putting forth the persona they think people will follow.

In addition to just meeting other meteorologists and weather geeks face-to-face, there are more reasons to attend the local chapter meetings.  First, there are the speakers and topics covered at the meetings.  Honestly, if I hadn’t attended the meetings of the North Carolina State Student Chapter, the Twin Cities Chapter, or the Central North Carolina Chapter, of which I am  a current member, I would not have learned about so many varied topics – all of which relate to the weather.  For example, I have enjoyed talks about rain gardening and permeable pavers, river flooding forecasts, emergency services and recovery in New Orleans right after Katrina, one of the first videotaped, well-forecasted tornadoes ever, communicating risk to non-meteorologists whose decisions make a huge difference in life or death situations, and the list goes on.  Where else can you get information on such a variety of subjects in one place and not have to pay for a class or a subscription?  Yes, there are yearly dues, but in most chapters, they are small and well worth it!

Another thing that you’d miss out on if you don’t attend the meetings is meeting the “old timers,” and I use that term affectionately.  I’m talking about the retired and semi-retired meteorologists that still live in our communities and come out to the meetings.  They are an interesting group!  You may think that with a 20, 30, even 40 year age difference that you wouldn’t have much in common with them, but you’re wrong.  They’re watching the weather the same as you are.  They’re as excited about last week’s severe weather or next week’s coastal storm as you are.  In fact, they may even have some insight that only years of forecasting experience can give.  The younger meteorologists are learning to depend on computer models more and more for their forecasting.  The older guys had to develop a knack for getting the forecast right based on so much more than just model outputs.  Don’t get me wrong.  I love the models and the improvements to them as much as the next forecaster, but it’s always good to lift your eyes and look out the window once in a while to get a sense of what’s really going on out there.

The last good reason I’ll give here for going to local chapter meetings, although not the only other one that comes to mind, is what happens when a few good minds get together to talk things over.  I’m talking about brainstorming.  If you’re trying to wrap your mind around a problem at work, and you and your coworkers are getting nowhere on it, you can pose the question to a few trusted souls at the meeting.  More than likely they are from different backgrounds, i.e. schools, career paths, and experience, and someone might have a more objective, fresher perspective.  Sometimes just talking through an issue with a new person gives you a different perspective and the solution presents itself.  It’s happened to me more than once.

If you’re not sure whether you have a local chapter near you.  Check the listing on the National AMS website.  While there, you may also notice how many chapters are listed as “inactive.”  Hence, the reason for this blog entry.